Distribution Analysis#
statista.time_series.distribution
#
Distribution-aware methods mixin for TimeSeries.
Distribution
#
Bases: _TimeSeriesStub
Distribution fitting, normality tests, and diagnostic plots.
Source code in src/statista/time_series/distribution.py
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qq_plot(distribution='norm', column=None, confidence=0.95, **kwargs)
#
Quantile-Quantile plot against a theoretical distribution.
The single most useful diagnostic plot for assessing distributional assumptions. Points near the 1:1 line indicate a good fit; deviations in the tails indicate heavy or light tails.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
distribution
|
str
|
Name of a |
'norm'
|
column
|
str
|
Column to plot. If None, uses first column. |
None
|
confidence
|
float
|
Confidence level for the envelope (0-1). Default 0.95. |
0.95
|
**kwargs
|
Any
|
Passed to |
{}
|
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
tuple |
tuple[Figure, Axes]
|
(Figure, Axes) |
Examples:
Basic QQ plot against a normal distribution:
>>> import numpy as np
>>> from statista.time_series import TimeSeries
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(200))
>>> fig, ax = ts.qq_plot()
QQ plot against an exponential distribution:
References
Wilk, M.B. and Gnanadesikan, R. (1968). Probability plotting methods for the analysis of data. Biometrika, 55(1), 1-17.
Source code in src/statista/time_series/distribution.py
pp_plot(distribution='norm', column=None, **kwargs)
#
Probability-Probability plot.
Plots the empirical CDF against the theoretical CDF at each data point. Complementary to QQ plot -- PP emphasizes the center of the distribution, QQ emphasizes the tails.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
distribution
|
str
|
Name of a |
'norm'
|
column
|
str
|
Column to plot. If None, uses first column. |
None
|
**kwargs
|
Any
|
Passed to |
{}
|
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
tuple |
tuple[Figure, Axes]
|
(Figure, Axes) |
Examples:
Basic PP plot against a normal distribution:
>>> import numpy as np
>>> from statista.time_series import TimeSeries
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(200))
>>> fig, ax = ts.pp_plot()
PP plot against a Gumbel distribution:
>>> ts2 = TimeSeries(np.random.gumbel(0, 1, 200))
>>> fig, ax = ts2.pp_plot(distribution="gumbel_r")
Source code in src/statista/time_series/distribution.py
normality_test(method='auto', alpha=DEFAULT_ALPHA)
#
Test each column for normality.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
method
|
str
|
Test to use.
- "auto": Shapiro-Wilk if n < 5000, D'Agostino-Pearson if n >= 5000.
- "shapiro": Shapiro-Wilk test ( |
'auto'
|
alpha
|
float
|
Significance level. Default 0.05. |
DEFAULT_ALPHA
|
Returns:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
DataFrame
|
pandas.DataFrame: One row per column with: test_name, statistic, p_value, is_normal, conclusion. |
Examples:
Test normally distributed data (Shapiro-Wilk auto-selected for n < 5000):
>>> import numpy as np
>>> from statista.time_series import TimeSeries
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(200))
>>> result = ts.normality_test()
>>> result.loc["Series1", "test_name"]
'Shapiro-Wilk'
>>> round(float(result.loc["Series1", "statistic"]), 4)
0.9956
>>> round(float(result.loc["Series1", "p_value"]), 4)
0.829
>>> bool(result.loc["Series1", "is_normal"])
True
Test non-normal data (exponential distribution fails normality):
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts2 = TimeSeries(np.random.exponential(2, 200))
>>> result2 = ts2.normality_test()
>>> result2.loc["Series1", "conclusion"]
'Non-normal'
>>> round(float(result2.loc["Series1", "statistic"]), 4)
0.8522
Use Jarque-Bera test explicitly:
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts3 = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(200))
>>> result3 = ts3.normality_test(method="jarque_bera")
>>> round(float(result3.loc["Series1", "p_value"]), 4)
0.7464
Source code in src/statista/time_series/distribution.py
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empirical_cdf(column=None, **kwargs)
#
Step-function plot of the empirical CDF.
Simpler than KDE -- no bandwidth choice needed. Shows the actual data distribution as a monotonically increasing step function.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
column
|
str
|
Column to plot. If None, plots all columns overlaid. |
None
|
**kwargs
|
Any
|
Passed to |
{}
|
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
tuple |
tuple[Figure, Axes]
|
(Figure, Axes) |
Examples:
Plot the empirical CDF of normally distributed data:
>>> import numpy as np
>>> from statista.time_series import TimeSeries
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(100))
>>> fig, ax = ts.empirical_cdf()
Overlay multiple columns on one plot:
>>> data = np.column_stack([np.random.randn(100), np.random.randn(100) + 2])
>>> ts2 = TimeSeries(data, columns=["A", "B"])
>>> fig, ax = ts2.empirical_cdf()
Source code in src/statista/time_series/distribution.py
fit_distributions(method='lmoments')
#
Fit distributions to each column and select the best fit.
Uses the statista Distributions facade to fit all available distributions
(GEV, Gumbel, Exponential, Normal) and selects the best by KS test.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
method
|
str
|
Parameter estimation method -- "lmoments", "mle", or "mm". Default "lmoments". |
'lmoments'
|
Returns:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
DataFrame
|
pandas.DataFrame: One row per column with: best_distribution, loc, scale, shape, ks_statistic, ks_p_value. |
Examples:
Fit distributions using MLE and inspect the best fit:
>>> import numpy as np
>>> from statista.time_series import TimeSeries
>>> np.random.seed(42)
>>> ts = TimeSeries(np.random.randn(200))
>>> result = ts.fit_distributions(method="mle")
>>> result.loc["Series1", "best_distribution"]
'Normal'
>>> round(float(result.loc["Series1", "ks_p_value"]), 4)
0.9997
Check that the result DataFrame has the expected columns:
>>> sorted(result.columns.tolist())
['best_distribution', 'ks_p_value', 'ks_statistic', 'loc', 'scale', 'shape']